We integrate the best quantitative and qualitative evaluations available from a wide variety of sources. In the very end, there are no right or wrong answers -- only a well-informed judgment call. We won't be perfect, but we will be bold.
Remember, our goal is to identify the best ROI for your political investment. We're not here to just pick “winners." We're looking for opportunities where your contribution has the potential to have an outsized impact.
Democrats need to flip 24 seats in order to regain majority control of the House of Representatives. Our focus is on relatively underfunded races where financial contributions could make a significant impact. Of course, money isn't everything in politics, but Republicans gained an over-representative majority in American politics largely by making strategic investments around the country.
Our process for determining suggested targets is multi-step:
- Quantitative: First, we look the numbers with help from Clarity Campaign Labs. Clarity has been in the data business since 2007 and looks at a wide data set of historical trends, turnout numbers, fundraising figures, polling data, and much more.
- Qualitative: Next, we look at qualitative and district-specific factors. Like anything else, some candidates and campaigns are better than others. Future Strategies Inc. knows the ins and outs of hundreds of districts and regularly advises many high net-worth political investors.
- Independent Spending Capacity: Independent Expenditures (IE) can often exceed campaign spending, and the right investments are crucial. America Votes (AV) has been working with 800 organizations with decades of experience running Voter Registration and Get out the Vote programs; they help us target organizations with a strong track record of turning out voters in Congressional races.
- Nesting: Here we consider efficiency of spending via a "nesting analysis." Candidates in high-profile races in the same states/districts benefit from each other's spending, which drives turnout for everyone. This is a key critera for spending leverage. Conversely, political investments may need to increase in areas with less overlap.
- Efficiency: Finally, we put all of this information together in a final analysis. We'll win some, and we'll lose some, but we're going to take a strategic approach to political investing.
Our investment strategy for helping Democrats take majority control of the House of Representatives starts here:
- The maximum legal limit for individual campaign contributions is $2,700 (or $5,400 per couple). Before you do anything else, max out to these candidates.
- Step two is to invest in one or more organizations that will benefit the campaigns through Voter Registration efforts, Get Out the Vote programs, and Third-Party Advertising. Remember that campaigns and Independent Organizations are not allowed to coordinate with each other.
Ready to get started? Click HERE to Flip the House.