Want to Win the Presidency 2020? Invest in States Today.
Why Invest? The 2020 Presidential Election, Control of the House, Control of the Senate and the Supreme Court
Why donate to other states? Reasons #1 and #2 are at the top of the page.
Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes. As Trump will tell you (and tell you, and tell you), he is President today because the Republican nominee captured 304 electoral votes. It is the states that will decide the 2020 Presidential election. It is in the states where political infrastructure must catch up to outside spending from Republicans to make sure that Trump is a one-term President.
Since 2010, the Republicans have taken over the states. The national policies you see today are a direct result of the execution of a well thought-out plan based on taking control of key states. Dave Daley (in "RatF**ked") and others have documented these efforts and the accompanying results:
Since we started with a question, let's keep those queries coming. Do you think any of the following things are important?
Let's break these down, one by one.
Trump captured Michigan by a mere 11,000 votes. It took only 44,000 votes for Trump to win Pennsylvana, and 112,000 votes in Florida (out of 9.5 million cast). Wth such close margins, it's very possible that local Secretaries of State could determine the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election. Secretaries of State (SOS) manage voter rolls in different ways: a Republican Secretary of State might focus on voter suppression (see Ohio and Florida), while a Democratic SOS will focus on registering more voters and making sure they are able to vote without being hassled. When you consider that the next Democratic Presidential nominee will spend well more than $1 billion in 2020, making much smaller investments in a few SOS races in 2018 will have a far greater ROI than spending hundreds of million dollars on the 2020 election directly. Invest in states and reap the benefits nationally.
Majority Control, U.S. House of Representatives
Democrats need to pick up 24 seats in 2018 in order to reclaim majority control of the House (Fun Fact: Presidential impeachment proceedings begin in the House Judiciary Committee, which could be under Democratic control in January). The reason that Democrats aren't already in the majority today is because Republicans were so successful in their redistricting efforts following the 2010 Census that they were able to create gerrymandered maps where Democrats had no hope of winning against a Republican candidate.
New congressional maps are constitutionally-mandated to be drawn every 10 years in order to account for population growth and other cultural/diversity shifts. Every state has its own unique process on how the new district lines are drawn, but in general, control of the Governor’s office and the State House or State Senate are the key to drawing fair lines following the next Census. Investing today in key Governor’s races and other state legislative contests races is a much wiser move than over-investing in difficult U.S. House races every two years for the next decade.
Every state sends two U.S. Senators to Washington D.C. Republicans currently control all three branches of government in 26 states (compared to 8 states for Democrats). For obvious reasons, the party with the most control of the local political infrastructure enters every new election cycle with a decided advantage.
The Judiciary System
In several states the ultimate outcome of redistricting is decided by a State Supreme Court that can be as blindly partisan as any other political office. State judges are also critical to fighting back against the Trump agenda and a likely conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court. State judges also impact outcomes on voting rights, women's rights, social justice, the environment...and just about any issue that matters to anyone. Investing in campaigns and organizations that elect state-level judges is exponentially more cost-effective than a drop-in-the-bucket donation to one of the top-watched races for U.S. Senate, Congress, or Governor.
State and local governments impact the daily lives of American families much more directly than the federal government. Consider what happened in Virginia in 2017: Voters selected a Democratic Governor, came within one seat of taking control of the Virginian House, and came up short in efforts to take control of the Virginia Senate. Just by changing the person behind the Governor's desk, Virginia was able to expand Medicare to 400,000 people within a few months of the election. As the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but that's not entirely true. Sometimes, "close" can literally change people's lives for the better.
Have a Blue Impact
Select one of the Blue Impact States, pick one candidate, and choose one supporting organization. Make a contribution -- NOW -- and put your money where it can have the greatest impact.
Changing policies can change lives, but only with the right people in elected office. Winning elections requires strategy and planning. Many states have solid organizations in place, but they need the funding to make them successful.
At Blue Impact, our goal is to give you the information you need in order to maximize your political investments. Click on a state in the drop-down menu above to get started.