Want to Win the Presidency 2020? Invest in States Today
Why Invest? The 2020 Presidential Election, Control of the House, Control of the Senate and the Supreme Court
Why donate to other states? Reasons #1 and #2 are at the top of the page.
Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes. As Trump will tell you (and tell you, and tell you), he is President today because the Republican nominee captured 304 electoral votes. It is the individual states that will decide the 2020 Presidential election. It is in the states where political infrastructure must catch up to outside spending from Republicans to make sure that Trump is a one-term President.
Since 2010, the Republicans have taken over the states. Democrats made gains in 2018, but there is still work to be done. The national policies you see today are a direct result of the execution of a well thought-out plan based on taking control of key states. As Dave Daley (in "RatF**ked") and others have documented, a focus on state politics was incredibly successful for Republicans over the last decade:
Since we started with a question, let's keep those queries coming. Do you think any of the following things are important?
Let's break these down, one by one.
Trump captured Michigan by a mere 11,000 votes. It took only 44,000 votes for Trump to win Pennsylvania, and 112,000 votes in Florida (out of 9.5 million cast). With such close margins, it's very possible that local Secretaries of State could determine the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election. Secretaries of State (SOS) manage voter rolls in different ways: a Republican Secretary of State might focus on voter suppression (see Ohio and Florida), while a Democratic SOS will focus on registering more voters and making sure they are able to vote without being hassled. When you consider that the next Democratic Presidential nominee will spend well more than $1 billion in 2020, making much smaller investments in a few SOS races in 2018 will have a far greater ROI than spending hundreds of million dollars on the 2020 election directly. Invest in states and reap the benefits nationally.
Majority Control, U.S. House of Representatives
Democrats reclaimed the majority in the U.S. House in 2018 after years of Republican control thanks to gerrymandering.
New congressional maps are constitutionally-mandated to be drawn every 10 years in order to account for population growth and other cultural/diversity shifts; the next maps will be drawn in 2021. Every state has its own unique process on how the new district lines are drawn, but in general, control of the Governor’s office and the State House or State Senate are the key to drawing fair lines following the next Census. Investing today in key Governor’s races and other state legislative contests races is a much wiser move than over-investing in difficult U.S. House races every two years for the next decade.
Every state sends two U.S. Senators to Washington D.C. Republicans took control of state government in 20 states in the 2010 "Tea Party Wave" year; Democrats retook control of 8 states in 2018. For obvious reasons, the party with the most control of the local political infrastructure enters every new election cycle with a decided advantage.
The Judiciary System
In several states the ultimate outcome of redistricting is decided by a State Supreme Court that can be as blindly partisan as any other political office. State judges are also critical to fighting back against the Trump agenda and a conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court. State judges also impact outcomes on voting rights, women's rights, social justice, the environment...and just about any issue that matters to anyone. Investing in campaigns and organizations that elect state-level judges is exponentially more cost-effective than a drop-in-the-bucket donation to one of the top-watched races for U.S. Senate, Congress, or Governor.
State and local governments impact the daily lives of American families much more directly than the federal government. Consider what happened in Virginia in 2017: Voters selected a Democratic Governor, came within one seat of taking control of the Virginia House, and nearly took control of the Virginia Senate. Just by changing the person behind the Governor's desk, Virginia was able to expand Medicare to 400,000 people within a few months of the election. As the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but that's not entirely true. Sometimes, "close" can literally change people's lives for the better.
Have a Blue Impact
Changing policies can change lives, but only with the right people in elected office. Winning elections requires strategy and planning. Many states have solid organizations in place, but they need the funding to make them successful.
At Blue Impact Network, our goal is to give you the information you need in order to maximize your political investments.
CLICK HERE to contribute to Blue Impact Network as we look ahead to the next election cycle.